Software Forecasting

Software planning is for the short term when you got all the pieces out and ready to assemble the product or complete the objective.

Planning: the act or process of making or carrying out plans

Software forecasting is when you have an idea about what it takes but know there might be some variables or irregularities which will effect the outcome.

Forcasting: to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data

Software is complex and if not maintained, your estimates will reflect this and they will always be forecasts. Depending on the software age which is being worked on and the experience of the worker with the software, there is a high chance, that work may always be a forecasts because of all the variables and irregularities.

This goes for the people side of software too. Lose to many people, the knowledge goes with them. Software planning just got harder without them. If the business pivots or changes priority, the software estimates change with it.

Our estimating practices are bad because it is hard. Estimates are effected by so many forces. It is like forecasting the weather. Weather forecast pleases some and manages to upset others. Same goes for software estimates.

Don't get mad at the person giving the software estimates their just trying to forecast what they know. Embrace that software estimates are not so predictable and boring. Enjoy a little unexpected rain on a summers day.